- Betting With An Edge Mike Maloney
- Betting With An Edge Maloney
- Betting With An Edge Maloney
- Book Betting With An Edge
From primetime picks to off-the-radar locks, Early Edge is bringing you the best bets in a quick, informative and easy to digest podcast. We promise to keep it short, sweet and to the point as SportsLine’s best experts come together to put some green into your pocket. Early Edge is under 10 minutes and in your feed every single day by 11 AM ET. Value occurs when you’ve got the upper hand on the bookmakers or the markets. Trademate provides you with what we call an edge percentage, which is an estimate on how much you will profit off that bet. If you place $100 on a 5% edge.
Action: Having a wager on a game.
ATS ('against the [point] spread'): If a team is 5-2 ATS, it means it has a 5-2 record against the point spread, or more commonly referred to simply as the 'spread.'
Backdoor cover: When a team scores points at the end of a game to cover the spread unexpectedly.
Bad beat: Losing a bet you should have won. It's especially used when the betting result is decided late in the game to change the side that covers the spread. Also used in poker, such as when a player way ahead in the expected win percentage loses on the river (last card).
Beard: Someone who places a wager for another person (aka 'runner').
Book: Short for sportsbook or bookmaker; person or establishment that takes bets from customers.
Bookie: A person who accepts bets illegally and charges vig.
Buying points: Some bookies or sportsbooks will allow customers to alter the set line and then adjust odds. For example, a bettor might decide he wants to have his team as a 3-point underdog instead of the set line of 2.5. He has then 'bought' half a point, and the odds of his bet will be changed.
Chalk: The favorite in the game. People said to be 'chalk' bettors typically bet the favorite.
Circle game: A game for which the betting limits are lowered, usually because of injuries and/or weather.
Closing line: The final line before the game or event begins.
Consensus pick: Derived from data accumulated from a variety of sportsbooks in PickCenter. The pick, and its percentage, provides insight as to what side the public is taking in a game.
Cover: The betting result on a point-spread wager. For a favorite to cover, it has to win by more than the spread; an underdog covers by winning outright or losing by less than the spread.
Dime: Jargon for a $1,000 bet. If you bet 'three dimes,' that means a $3,000 wager.
'Dog: Short for underdog.
Dollar: Jargon for a $100 bet. Usually used with bookies; if you bet 'five dollars,' that means a $500 wager.
Edge: An advantage. Sports bettors might feel they have an edge on a book if they think its lines aren't accurate.
Even money: Odds that are considered 50-50. You put up $1 to win $1.
Exotic: Any wager other than a straight bet or parlay; can also be called a 'prop' or 'proposition wager.'
Favorite: The expected straight-up winner in a game or event. Depending on the sport, the favorite will lay either odds or points. For example, in a football game, if a team is a 2.5-point favorite, it will have to win by three points or more to be an ATS winner.
Fixed: A participant in a particular game who alters the result of that game or match to a completely or partially predetermined result. The participant did not play honestly or fairly because of an undue outside influence.
Futures bet: A long-term wager that typically relates to a team's season-long success. Common futures bets include betting a team to win a championship at the outset of a season, or betting whether the team will win or lose more games than a set line at the start of the season.
Halftime bet: A bet made after the first half ended and before the second half begins (football and basketball primarily). The oddsmaker generally starts with half of the game side/total and adjusts based on what happened in the first half.
Handicapper: A person trying to predict the winners of an event.
Handle: The amount of money taken by a book on an event or the total amount of money wagered.
Hedging: Betting the opposing side of your original bet, to either ensure some profit or minimize potential loss. This is typically done with futures bets, but can also be done on individual games with halftime bets or in-game wagering.
High roller: A high-stakes gambler.
Hook: A half-point. If a team is a 7.5-point favorite, it is said to be 'laying seven and a hook.'
In-game wagering: A service offered by books in which bettors can place multiple bets in real time, as the game is occurring.
Juice: The commission the bookie or bookmaker takes. Standard is 10 percent. Also called the 'vig/vigorish.'
Layoff: Money bet by a sportsbook with another sportsbook or bookmaker to reduce that book's liability.
Limit: The maximum bet taken by a book. If a book has a $10,000 limit, it'll take that bet but the book will then decide whether it's going to adjust the line before the bettor can bet again.
Lock: A guaranteed win in the eyes of the person who made the wager.
Middle: When a line moves, a bettor can try to 'middle' a wager and win both sides with minimal risk. Suppose a bettor bets one team as a 2.5-point favorite, then the line moves to 3.5 points. She can then bet the opposite team at 3.5 and hope the favorite wins by three points. She would then win both sides of the bet.
Money line (noun), money-line (modifier): A bet in which your team only needs to win. The point spread is replaced by odds.
Mush: A bettor or gambler who is considered to be bad luck.
Nickel: Jargon for a $500 bet. Usually used with bookies; if you bet 'a nickel,' that means a $500 wager.
Oddsmaker (also linemaker): The person who sets the odds. Some people use it synonymous with 'bookmaker' and often the same person will perform the role at a given book, but it can be separate if the oddsmaker is just setting the lines for the people who will eventually book the bets.
Off the board: When a book or bookie has taken a bet down and is no longer accepting action or wagers on the game. This can happen if there is a late injury or some uncertainty regarding who will be participating.
Over/under: A term that can be used to describe the total combined points in a game (the Ravens-Steelers over/under is 40 points) or the number of games a team will win in a season (the Broncos' over/under win total is 11.5). Also used in prop bets.
Parlay: A wager in which multiple teams are bet, either against the spread or on the money line. For the wager to win (or pay out), all of them must cover/win. The more teams you bet, the greater the odds.
Pick 'em: A game with no favorite or underdog. The point spread is zero, and the winner of the game is also the spread winner.
Point spread (or just 'spread'): The number of points by which the supposed better team is favored over the underdog.
Proposition (or prop) bet: A special or exotic wager that's not normally on the betting board, such as which team will score first or how many yards a player will gain. Sometimes called a 'game within a game.' These are especially popular on major events, with the Super Bowl being the ultimate prop betting event.
Push: When a result lands on the betting number and all wagers are refunded. For example, a 3-point favorite wins by exactly three points. Return on investment (ROI): In PickCenter, ROI is the amount (according to numberFire) that a bettor should expect to get back on a spread pick.
Runner: Someone who makes bets for another person (aka 'beard').
Sharp: A professional, sophisticated sports bettor.
Spread: Short for point spread.
Square: A casual gambler. Someone who typically isn't using sophisticated reasoning to make a wager.
Steam: When a line is moving unusually fast. It can be a result of a group or syndicate of bettors all getting their bets in at the same time. It can also occur when a respected handicapper gives a bet his followers all jump on, or based on people reacting to news such as an injury or weather conditions.
Straight up: The expected outright winner of the money line in an event or game, not contingent on the point spread.
Teaser: Betting multiple teams and adjusting the point spread in all the games in the bettor's favor. All games have to be picked correctly to win the wager.
Total: The perceived expected point, run or goal total in a game. For example, in a football game, if the total is 41 points, bettors can bet 'over' or 'under' on that perceived total.
Tout (service): a person (or group of people) who either sells or gives away picks on games or events.
Underdog: The team that is expected to lose straight up. You can either bet that the team will lose by less than the predicted amount (ATS), or get better than even-money odds that it will win the game outright. For example, if a team is a 2-1 underdog, you can bet $100 that the team will win. If it wins, you win $200 plus receive your original $100 wager back.
Vig/vigorish: The commission the bookie or bookmaker takes; also called the 'juice.' Standard is 10 percent.
Wager: A bet.
Welch: To not pay off a losing bet.
Wiseguy: A professional bettor. Another term for a 'sharp.'
You need an edge in the sports betting markets to make money.
Finding An Edge – Sports Betting And Betfair Trading
First off what is an edge in sports betting and trading?
An edge is the reason that you make money from sports betting.
A simple example of an edge that is well documented and used by many is matched betting and arbitrage. Matched betting involves using bookmaker promotions to make frequent profits. Arbitrage capitalizes on bookmakers being slow to move their odds allowing profit to be made on all outcomes.
However the trouble with these edges is that it isn’t easily scalable and it relies on soft bookmakers. Who eventually won’t want your business and limit you to pennies.
That leaves a lot of people searching for an edge that is sustainable over the long term. An edge that offers more scalability and the potential for larger profit.
But what processes can you use to find an edge?
Lets have look at some potential ways to find an edge in both sports betting and sports trading.
Past Data
One way of looking at finding an edge is to analyse past data. This may reveal profitable trends that potentially still exist in the current markets. Which then can lead to a profitable betting strategy.
Two big advocates of this type of analysis are Cassini. The man behind the sports betting blog green all over, who frequently puts up betting systems based on past profitable trends.
Jon Roberts the man behind the software Predictology. Is also a fan of using past data to look at building profitable betting strategies for the current betting markets.
Is there a downside to using past data?
Well just because something has happened in the past doesn’t guarantee it is going to happen in the future.
However it is certainly a good indicator to use and might highlight some area’s that could be exploitable.
Modelling
If you have an interest in sports betting. Then you will have probably come across a few mathematical models that people use to try and find value in the betting markets.
For those that are mathematically minded. Developing a sports betting model might be the answer to developing an edge.
It is thought that many of the largest betting syndicates in the world use mathematical modelling for sports betting.
Betting With An Edge Mike Maloney
Lets take a look at a few models which have been used to try and find value in sports betting.
Elo Ratings
The idea of Elo ratings is that each team has a rating. Stronger sides will be given a higher rating compared to weaker sides. For example Manchester United would be given a higher rating then Brighton.
Elo ratings are constantly changing, they are calculated based upon the results of matches. When two sides play, the winner of a match will gain a certain number of points in their rating. The losing team loses the same amount.
The number of points won or lost in a match will depend on the difference in the Elo ratings of the teams. By beating stronger teams a side will increase there points by more then by beating a weaker side.
Poisson Distribution
Poisson distribution is a mathematical concept. Used for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution.
This is used in football betting for example to calculate on average how likely a team are to score a certain number of goals.
Here are some good articles on Poisson distribution in betting.
Expected Goals
In football the expected goals model has risen in popularity lately. Being used quite often in post match analysis by television pundits.
Expected goals is a metric which assesses every chance, it is a way of assigning a value to every attempt at scoring a goal. Each attempt is given a value based based on the expectancy of how likely it is to be scored.
For example an effort from less than six yards out in front of goal was given a rating of 0.91xG. It was such a good chance it should be scored 91% of the time.
Using an expected goals model could indicate how “lucky” or “unlucky” a teams results have been. Which could indicate value on teams that may have been performing well on expected goals but not getting the results.
Live Pictures
They say a picture paints a thousand words. Often live pictures can tell you much more about a game then the in play stats.
We live in an age where there are free streams of football games all around the world. On a given day you can watch the Japanese league in the morning, the Romanian league in the afternoon and finish off with La Liga at night.
There are quite a few football traders for example that swear by trading only with live pictures.
Psychoff may be one of the best known football traders in the world. He has stated on his twitter account that he makes his goal alert trading decisions based on watching live games. Surprisingly also stating that he doesn’t use statistics for these trades.
With live pictures you can pick up on adjustments in tactics. In football games you can read the tempo and flow of a game. See the weather conditions, body language of players. Having live pictures can often give you a lot of extra information when deciding to make a bet.
Combined with knowledge of the sports and teams. Live pictures might be enough to give you a profitable edge in the markets.
Beating The Closing Odds
In sports betting. If you can consistently beat the closing odds at sharp bookmakers. Then its likely that you are consistently finding value.
Major sports betting markets are pretty efficient. There has been quite a few studies which have shown this using Pinnacle’s closing odds as an example.
Because they are so efficient if you are able to constantly beat the closing odds (after the inclusion of vig). Then you will most likely have found yourself a profitable betting system.
In fact the profitable sports betting tool Trademate is based on this very concept.
Trademate scans for odds across a high number of bookmakers. When it finds odds that are higher then those at the sharp bookmakers it advises a bet.
This is also known as value betting.
It is perhaps one of the simplest ways of finding value in the sports betting markets.
If you are looking for high turnover and a proven method of making money. Value betting is probably one of the easiest ways to do this.
The drawback to this style of betting is that it again relies on soft bookmakers.
Experiencing The Markets
This could probably be classed as using past data.
However specifically relating to Betfair trading I think it deserves its own section.
Experiencing the markets over and over can really help you see potential opportunities for profit.
I will use football as an example as this is the sport I trade the most.
A lot of my own pre match trading strategies were created by watching lots of market movements. Noting odds days in advance for games. Tracking what the odds were leading up to game day and eventually noting the closing odds.
If you do this you start to see patterns and understand what moves a market pre match.
Team news is always going to have a big effect on the market. But by watching markets I also learnt that performances mid week for teams playing in Europe will effect prices for games at the weekend.
If there is a question mark on whether a key player is likely to start, early odds movement can often be a good indication on how likely they are to play or not. As people with this information already will get their bets on before its public knowledge.
Caan Berry has also stated that he records all the horse racing markets he trades. So that he can experience these markets again and build better judgments for future markets. Allowing him to react quicker if future markets trade in a similar way to one he has already experienced.
In Depth Knowledge
As noted earlier in this article. The markets with the most amount of money traded are usually the most efficient.
However odds makers don’t put a huge amount of attention on some of the sports/events that don’t attract the big money.
For example the odds in the Portuguese second division are not going to be as efficient as the Champions league. So for a hardcore fan of the Portuguese second division, value might be easy to spot at first glance.
In lesser known sports/leagues an in depth knowledge may be enough to give you a profitable edge.
Contrarian Betting
The sport of mixed martial arts is still fairly young. Betting on the UFC is growing and odds makers are getting better at pricing up fights.
Betting With An Edge Maloney
However if you have an in depth knowledge of the sport then there is great value to be found.
Given that you don’t see fighters week in week out. Along with the promotion of UFC being akin to pro wrestling with a narrative often being written. Occassionally you see some lop sided odds as the betting public often follow the narrative being portrayed.
The best example of this is when Ronda Rousey fought Amanda Nunes.
Rousey was coming back after a year layoff on the back of vicious head kick loss. In a fight where she showed serious flaws in her fighting style.
Nunes was the new champion who had shown to be well rounded and was running through top level competition. On top of that she had shown she was an elite level striker, striking was Rousey’s biggest weakness.
All the media and promotion of the fight was behind Rousey comeback and somehow Nunes was odds of 2.8 as the defending champion come fight night.
The odds were way out of line due to the media being behind only one fighter.
Whenever the media are heavily behind one team/athlete. It is always worth looking at it from a contrarian point of view.
Summary
So we have looked at multiple approaches in finding an edge in the sports betting markets.
Depending on your personality and your own skill set some maybe more viable then others
Often a combination of the methods above will be used to find value.
Finding a long term edge in the Betfair trading or sports betting isn’t easy. But for those that do find them the rewards can be huge.
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