- FILE - In this May 2, 2015, file photo, a man places a bet before the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby horse race at Churchill Downs, in Louisville, Ky. Picking a horse to win the Kentucky Derby is easy. Hoping that choice wins and pays off with a profit is the challenge.(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)
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- Everything you need to know to Bet the Kentucky Derby From Home at the Kentucky Derby. The 2021 Kentucky Derby is the 147th renewal of The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports. Live odds, betting, horse bios, travel info, tickets, news, and updates from Churchill Downs Race Track.
- An exacta bet is a common Kentucky Derby bet that has you choose the top two horses of the Kentucky Derby in the correct order. Also known as a perfecta bet, an exacta bet is a step up from your traditional win, place, show bet. If a +1500 long shot wins the Kentucky Derby and the +200 favorite finishes second, the exacta might return $80.
- Betting futures for this race is a great way to maximize the value in some of the betting odds. Using one of the top-rated online sportsbooks posting Kentucky Derby futures, Tiz the Law is a +175.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Picking a horse to win the Kentucky Derby is easy.
Placing a bet is as close as a cellphone, tablet, computer or even a smart TV with internet access. But for the novice or inexperienced bettor, making a wager that pays off with a profit can be a challenge: Beginners need to know how to place a bet, who to bet on and where to place the bet.
Off-track simulcasting in more than two dozen states offers a convenient alternative to going to the track. Of course, there’s always the actual experience of walking up to the betting window at the track.
That’s a good option if you can’t get to Churchill Downs, where 150,000 spectators are expected for Saturday’s 145th Derby and hoping to get some action on Game Winner, the 9-2 new morning line favorite after 4-1 previous favorite Omaha Beach was scratched Wednesday evening with a breathing problem.
Minimum bets vary from state to state, but here are some things to consider when placing a wager:
Meanwhile, if you have an Advance Deposit Wagering (ADW) account you can bet on the Kentucky Derby and almost any other U.S. Thoroughbred race without going to a track. Scheduled post for the Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) at 1 1/8 miles for fillies is 5:45 p.m. Eastern on Friday. Scheduled post for the Kentucky Oaks is 7:01 p.m. Eastern on Saturday.
THE BASICS
The obvious wager is betting on a horse to win. Just pick one. But after that, it can get a little trickier.
Bets can be made on a horse to win, place (finish first or second) or show (finish first, second or third) — or all three with an across-the-board wager. An exacta involves correctly picking the first two horses in order, or in any order with a combination known as a box bet (1-2 or 2-1, for example).
Superfecta bets (picking the first four horses) are also available, as are exotic wagers such as Pick 3 and Pick 6 that requires choosing the winning horses in multiple races. A Pick 3 and a Pick 6 are the hardest to predict, leading to rollover jackpots that can be very lucrative. But they probably are best left to more seasoned bettors.
DO YOUR HOMEWORK
Determining who to bet on can start with a daily racing program that lists entrants for each race and information including odds, jockey, trainer, silks, saddle towel color and past performances. They can be purchased at the track, simulcast venue or a track’s website.
It will initially seem like a lot of numbers and statistics, but tracks and web sites offer instructions on how to read and understand a program. One benefit to being at the track is seeing how the horse looks in the paddock or during the pre-race parade. Appearance and temperament are important, so keep an eye on horse’s ears to see how engaged the horse is with the atmosphere.
And there’s nothing wrong with playing a hunch, since after all, it’s just a gamble.
ONLINE BETTING
After learning what to bet and who to bet on, the next step is placing the bet.
Numerous websites such as TwinSpires.com — Churchill Downs’ online service — Equibase.com and TVG.com offer betting at racetracks worldwide. Wagering is free, but it will require setting up a subscription and require banking information to place bets and deposit winnings. Those services even provide live streaming and replays.
Various online sites offer betting tips along with news and updates. It’s the most convenient way to bet on marquee races such as the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes as the Triple Crown season unfolds. It’s also a good option for other marquee races during the year such as the Travers Stakes and season-ending Breeders’ Cup World Championships.
PARI-MUTUEL BETTING-SPORTS BETTING
When wagering, the longer the odds the bigger the payoff.
In horse racing, the odds are not finalized until the race begins. That is known as pari-mutuel betting. That’s different than sports betting in which bettors get the odds that are available at the time they make their bet.
How To Bet On The Kentucky Derby In California
New Jersey tracks also offer exchange wagering for horse races, which differs from pari-mutuel betting. Exchange wagering matches and locks in the odds at the time a bet is placed and also allows betting during the race.
And while sports betting expanded in several states last year after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states could legalize sports gambling, it does not include horse racing. Even in most states that have legalized sports betting, placing a bet on horse racing is limited to the tracks as the sport examines how to compete and benefit from new legislation.
It is the most basic question now that will not change much in the three weeks left until the Kentucky Derby. But the answer may be as capricious as a swirling wind.
How would you bet the Derby right now?
Not knowing whether the field will fill and with what horses and with jockeys trying to figure out how they are coming and going, it is not a fair question.
Nevertheless, HRN posed it to some well-known horseplayers who will be seen in a series of stories delivering their insights on betting this unique running of America’s biggest race. Although they spoke in separate telephone conversations, their comments have been grouped where they crossed common ground.
If there was a feeling that Jonathon Kinchen, Judy Wagner, Tony Zhou and David Gutfreund shared, it was not just that it was too soon for a concrete opinion. It was that they have some basic strategy in mind that are the foundation of how they will place their bets Saturday, Sept. 5.
Of course, they all took into account the heavy favorite Tiz The Law.
JONATHON KINCHEN
Winner of the 2015 NHC Tour
Double finalist in the 2016 NHC
Fox Sports/NYRA, Austin, Texas
“I’m different than the casual fan. When I go to sleep on the first Saturday in September, if Tiz The Law wins and I walk away a loser, I can handle that. A lot of people want to see the ball go through the hoop on Derby day. With that said I’m not necessarily going to bet a lot of other horses to win the Derby. What I want to do is something that most people can’t stomach doing with the Kentucky Derby because it’s a 20-horse field. That is to single Tiz The Law in multi-race bets and use other opinions in the surrounding races. If he wins and I lose money, I’m OK with that from a fan standpoint. That’s fine. That’s how I’m going to bet the race. I have not seen anyone with a bad trip, with going a mile-and-a-quarter, with a hidden pedigree, with anything that makes me believe that they can turn the tables on what I saw here (at Saratoga) on Saturday from Tiz The Law.”
TONY ZHOU
Five times in National Horseplayers Championship
Analytics player, professional quantitative analyst
New York
“The Derby is probably going to have one of the most solid lines out there. It’s kind of like the Super Bowl. Everyone is analyzing lines and players. All that money whips the market into shape unless you have some public darling horse. Typically with that much money flowing into the pool, the lines are going to be pretty solid. I never view the Kentucky Derby as a great betting proposition. But it’s just a great race to watch.”
JUDY WAGNER
Winner of the 2001 NHC
Member of the Louisiana Racing Commission
New Orleans
Bet On Kentucky Derby Horses 2020
“I feel this year’s 3-year-old crop overall is not as strong, but that may be because I can’t tell you four or five 3-year-olds that I feel I’m excited about for the Derby. I loved seeing Tiz The Law. I really was concerned about him when they turned for home last week in the Travers. But all doubt was removed very quickly, especially by the sixteenth pole.”
DAVID GUTFREUND
Winner of the 2018 NHC Tour
15-time NHC player
Las Vegas
“The Derby is a unique race unto itself because the field size. You just don’t get that in any other races. The one thing about the Derby this year is the Kentucky horses all ran at Ellis Park last week. The New York horses ran in the Belmont and the Travers. For the most part the west-coast horses have stayed out on the west coast except for Uncle Chuck going in the Travers. So the one thing you do have going into this Derby is that you are going to see which region has the best horses. Everybody is just under the impression that Tiz The Law has been beating up on decent competition. But maybe the horses that Art Collector beat on Sunday at Ellis Park are better than the ones that Tiz The Law beat on Saturday.”
TONY ZHOU
“I think the undercard is where it’s at. Everyone spends all their time on the Derby and forgets about the rest. They spend hours and hours to analyze the Derby, and then they spend two minutes on the other races. Where it gets sloppy is the undercard. If I were to bet horizontally, it would probably be a Pick 6, because the pools are big and juicy. But aside from just wanting some action on a big pool in the Derby, I would tend to just avoid the race. Money is as green in the Derby as it is in the first maiden special weight on the card. I don’t care what race it comes from. I’m not going to force my action just because it’s the Derby. If it’s a terrible race and I have no opinion, I just won’t put much money into it. I may bet just because it’s the Derby and because it’s fun, but I’m not going to put any significant amount into it. It’s a great race for the sport. But it’s like the fan vs. gambler mentality.”
JUDY WAGNER
“My biggest excitement about the Derby is the fact that Churchill Downs is allowing a 10-cent superfecta this year. In the past you could only get a $1 superfecta. If there’s somebody I really like I key him. But when you get that many horses you can’t always do that. The biggest superfecta that I ever played in the Derby (in 2009) I had to completely rule out five or six horses. One of the horses was Mine That Bird. Needless to say you know what happened to me. That kind of cooked me on those $1 superfectas. But I think I will get a lot more interested with the 10-cent superfecta. They’re having 50-cent trifectas, too, which is nice, because you have some good opportunities to make money. I’m a serious handicapper, but I’m not a huge bettor, and I have a budget. If my budget doesn’t spread to all the races on the card, it doesn’t spread. Definitely there’s value to be had in the Derby. I still think you get good value if you can get past a prohibitive favorite like Tiz The Law.”
TONY ZHOU
“I don’t know how I will bet until literally the day before. I see how the pools move the day of. On a normal day in a normal Grade 1, I normally don’t know the names of the horses until the day before. Then I ask myself, first of all, if it’s even worth a bet. Number two, is there an opportunity to be had? Meaning I think if the public is missing something on the horse or the situation it’ll be highlighted. The next day, once I see how the odds flow, then I make the decision whether it’s worthwhile putting in a bet or not. I see what I see in the pools, and that’s when I make my decision. It’s like just like any other day actually.”
Free Kentucky Derby Picks Predictions
JONATHON KINCHEN
“I am a speed-figure guy through and through. Tiz The Law’s best (Beyer), which is much better than Art Collector’s or Honor A. P.’s or Thousand Words’s, was earned a mile-and-a-quarter. Even if the other three make a big improvement off of their figure when they get to the mile-and-a-quarter, it’s going to be Tiz The Law’s second time. I already know he can do it. and he did it geared down. If Honor A. P. couldn’t beat Thousand Words, he ain’t beating Tiz The Law.”
DAVID GUTFREUND
“Just a random thought on Tiz The Law. He’s had absolutely everything his own way in 2020. He has run out of his own stall, in short fields and gotten dreamy trips. The Derby is going to be 15, 16, 18, 20 horses. It’s on a track where he already flopped. The jockey (Manny Franco) is going to be under severe pressure; he has sometimes dropped the ball at the Saratoga meeting. The horses never run back on only four weeks’ rest. I do think there’s a lot of question marks around Tiz The Law. He hasn’t faced anybody like Art Collector or Honor A. P. or Thousand Words. He’s had pushover fields in the Belmont and the Travers, which were the Belmont and the Travers in name only. I’d be inclined to play against Tiz The Law. I have no idea with who, though.”
JONATHON KINCHEN
“It’s Kentucky Derby day. Since Giacomo and since Mine That Bird, a lot of people think that any horse can win the Derby. I’m actually different than that. I think every year there’s just a handful of horses that can win the Derby. It has become very formal for various reasons. I just don’t see how they’re going to beat him.”