Vegas Odds For Nascar Michigan

Picking a winner based on the odds for Saturday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Michigan International Speedway (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN) is tricky since this is now a unique event. Not only is it NASCAR's first visit to the two-mile oval in the Irish Hills of Michigan this season, but the FireKeepers Casino 400 is now the first leg of a Saturday-Sunday doubleheader.

• Besides, the 2019 season definitely paned out quite alright with two wins in Las Vegas Speedway and Michigan International Speedway. He also managed to finish top-five on five different occasions throughout the season, making him one of the best drivers still in the race.
• Odds to Win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship according to BetOnline Sportsbook. Updated on November 17, 2020. NASCAR Cup Series Odds to Win Nascar Cup Series Championship 2021 Kevin Harvick +500 Chase Elliott +700 Denny Hamlin +700 Joey Logano +700 Kyle Busch +700 Brad Keselowski +800 Martin Truex Jr +800 Kyle Larson +1200.
• Truck Series Odds, NASCAR Truck Series Race Lines 2021 NASCAR Betting There are currently no lines available for this sport. Either there are no odds open to bet on, or the sport is not in season at this time.
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When the NASCAR Cup Series last visited this track in August of last year, Kevin Harvick cruised to a win after successfully stretching his final fuel run. That, combined with the series points leader's strong 2020 season thus far, is why Havick is considered the favorite for Saturday's race at Michigan.

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Denny Hamlin finished second in that August race at Michigan last year, but only because Joey Logano gave up the position for a splash of fuel. Logano, of course, won the first of two Cup Series races at Michigan last season, so it's no surprise to see Logano and Hamlin behind Harvick on the odds board for Saturday.

Below are the complete Vegas odds to win Saturday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Michigan, plus our top three picks of drivers who could end up taking the checkered flag.

NASCAR odds to win at Michigan

Harvick is a familiar favorite atop the odds board in 2020, as only Hamlin (five) has more wins than Harvick's four victories this season. It doesn't hurt that Harvick cruised to victory in the late-summer race at Michigan last season.

Below are the complete odds to win Saturday's NASCAR race at Michigan, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Below are the top 10 driver ratings at Michigan among active racers:

1. Chase Elliott, 100.4
2. Matt Kenseth, 99.8
3. Kevin Harvick, 99.6
4. Joey Logano, 99.3
5. Brad Keselowski, 97.2
6. Jimmie Johnson, 92.6
7. Ryan Blaney, 92.2
8. Kurt Busch, 91.5
9. Denny Hamlin, 91.0
10. Kyle Busch, 89.3

Logano is on the pole for Saturday's race at Michigan based on the results of a random draw, which is great news for the No. 22 team. The top starting position is by far the most proficient in the field at Michigan, producing almost 22 percent of the Cup Series winners at the track.

The last driver to win at Michigan after staring on the pole? Logano, in this race last year.

Below is the breakdown of wins by starting position in the history of Cup racing (101 total races) at Michigan.

The top 10 starters for Saturday's race at Michigan (as determined by a random draw of the top 12 teams by owner points) are as follows:

1. Joey Logano
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Aric Almirola
5. Brad Keselowski
6. Alex Bowman
7. Kyle Busch
8. Chase Elliott
9. Clint Bowyer
10. Kurt Busch

MORE: Complete starting lineup for New Hampshire race

NASCAR at Michigan expert picks

(Driver loop data stats are from 2005-present)

1. Kevin Harvick

Career stats at Michigan:

• Three wins, 13 top fives, 19 top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 10.300 (second-best)
• Average running position of 11.893 (sixth-best)
• Driver rating of 99.6 (third-best)

Harvick is tied with Matt Kenseth and Kurt Busch for the most Cup Series starts (38) at Michigan, and he's tied with Logano and Busch for the most wins (three) at the track among active drivers. That experience, combined with his team's speed in 2020, should give him a good chance to notch victory No. 4 at the two-mile oval.

2. Chase Elliott

Career stats at Michigan:

• Three top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 7.625 (series-best)
• Average running position of 9.965 (series-best)
• Driver rating of 100.4 (series-best)

Elliott has not yet won at Michigan in his Cup Series career, but statistically speaking, he is the best driver in Saturday's field. Potentially helping his chance to win is the fact that the only comparable race thus far this season, the March 1 event at the similarly configured Auto Club Speedway, was won by Elliott's Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Alex Bowman.

3. Joey Logano

Career stats at Michigan:

• Three wins, six top fives, 15 top 10s; four poles
• Average finish of 12.182 (fourth-best)
• Average running position of 11.471 (fourth-best)
• Driver rating of 99.3 (fourth-best)

Logano has an impressive resume at Michigan, and even though his teammates Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney are ahead of him in points this season, the driver of the No. 22 statistically is the best at this track among those in the Team Penske stable.

Pennzoil 400 Best Bets

It’s only fitting that NASCAR’s fourth stop on the schedule is at the gambling capital of the world because the first three races have produced the highest odds total ever with three improbable winners.

It’s the first Las Vegas NASCAR weekend of 2021 with Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 and the most exciting news is that fans will be allowed to attend at 20% capacity after no fans were allowed in the fall Vegas race last season. Things are slowly getting back to normal living under a pandemic, but the winners from the first three races are anything but normal.

NASCAR Cup Betting Resources
Pennzoil 400 Picks

• Date: Sunday, March 7, 2021
• TV-Time: FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
• Location: Las Vegas, Nevada

2021 Filled with Long Shots!

The Daytona 500 was won by Michael McDowell at 65/1 odds and the Daytona road course race was won by Christopher Bell at a whopping 80/1 odds.

First-time NASCAR winners in the first two races for the first time since 1950.

And then last week at Homestead, William Byron led a race-high 102 laps won his second career Cup race and paid out at 25/1 odds.

Never ever have I seen anything like it and I’ve been creating NASCAR odds since Jeff Gordon was a rookie.

Last season we saw Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin combine to win 16 of the 36 races with a set-up edge they kept quiet about all season. They were the best with all three race packages. Everyone else was way behind, especially with the 550 horsepower package used on the larger tracks. Hamlin and Harvick won 11 of the 20 races using it. Neither of them has won yet.

I think the secret is out of the bag because there were some wild things happening at Homestead last week using the 550 HP package. New blood has been injected into the series from old teams that had struggled to keep up with Joe Gibbs and Stewart-Haas Racing teams.

Balanced Competition

The Ford camp has helped McDowell (6th last week) and Roush Fenway Racing be competitive again.

Roush’s Ryan Newman was seventh at Homestead and Chris Buescher led 57 laps, the second-most while winning the first stage and finished sixth in the second stage. Buescher looked like the best car in the first third of the race and then fell back to 19th-place after the sun went down.

Harvick was an ordinary fifth and Hamlin was 11th at Homestead and neither led a lap.

But it wasn’t just the Fords that found new speed.

It was Chevrolet as well with Hendrick Motorsports leading the way with three top-10 finishes and their best, last season's Cup Champion, Chase Elliott finishing 14th. They won two races with this week’s package last season and they’re already 1-for-1 with it in 2021.

Hendrick also produces for Chip Ganassi Racing drivers Kurt Busch and Ross Chastain as well as the JTG Daugherty drivers (Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 13th last week).

The ECR engines also worked well for Richard Childress Racing as Tyler Reddick was runner-up and the fastest driver on the track rim-riding in the final stages of the race when it became dark and Austin Dillon was 12th.

Even Daniel Suarez had a solid 15th-place finish using the ECR engines in his No. 99 Chevrolet co-owned by rapper Pitbull.

The bottom line is that we all have to change our betting strategies on these types of tracks with the 550 HP to include more candidates to win. 2020 is gone. There is parity now like I haven’t seen in ages. We can include up to 20 drivers with a legitimate chance to win this week instead of the usual crop of 10 or 12.

Handicapping NASCAR at Las Vegas

I’m chasing a betting strategy and willing to adapt on the fly and not rely so much on what happened last season.

The Homestead race showed me so much that I didn’t see last year and I’m relying on it heavily this week even though the two 1.5-mile layouts are vastly different.

I’m also looking deeper into what type of Goodyear tire is being used.

'Las Vegas is considered a low tire wear track, so our tread compounds are formulated to work on that type of surface,' said Greg Stucker, Goodyear’s director of racing. 'Last fall we changed the right-side tire at Las Vegas, Kansas, and Texas, aligning all three tracks. That move was made to give the cars more grip, and we saw some good results and had positive feedback from the teams so we decided to move forward with those same set-ups for this season.'

NASCAR Cup Odds - Pennzoil 400

• Martin Truex Jr. +600
• Kevin Harvick +650
• Brad Keselowski +650
• Joey Logano +650
• Denny Hamlin +900
• Kyle Larson +1000
• (Odds Subject to Change)

Hamlin led the most laps at Las Vegas (third) and Kansas (won) while Kurt Busch won at Las Vegas paying out at 28/1 odds, the longest shot to ever win in 26 Cup races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway which is notorious for having past champions or pre-race favorites to win. More on Busch later.

Hendrick Motorsports looked to have something different/better with all four of their cars having a chance to win and they should all be considered this week, especially the two with the longest odds beginning with Alex Bowman who William Hill sportsbooks have listed at 30/1 odds.

“Las Vegas is a track where we have had a lot of speed in the past and were in a position to go to victory lane in both events last season,” Bowman said. “Our 1.5-mile program is so strong at Hendrick Motorsports, and we have really dialed in our Chevrolet Camaros on these tracks. Coming off two top-10 finishes gives our Ally team a little bit of momentum, but we are hungry for more.”

Before Bowman’s ninth at Homestead, he had three straight top-fives on 1.5-mile tracks to close out 2020.

William Hill books have last week’s winner William Byron list at 18/1.

“Vegas has become really fun to race and a really good track for us on the No. 24 team,” Byron said. “It’s a challenge, though. You need to have a car that can be dynamic and change lanes around the track. The top of turns three and four is a really good place to run, especially if your car is a little loose. I think Vegas puts on a really good race with this aero package and it brings out the best. You can draft up on guys but still get clean air in the corners to make a pass on someone. Plus, the restarts are crazy. I really enjoy it.”

Chase Elliott is William Hill’s 5/1 favorite and Kyle Larson is 9/1.

But I made my biggest return on investment on a driver who uses a Hendrick Motorsports engine, last fall’s winner Kurt Busch who is 35/1 odds at William Hill. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has him 25/1.

I saw enough out of Busch last week at Homestead where he was a hard charger getting faster as the sun was going down. He was ninth in the first stage, third in the second stage, and finished eighth. But he had an unscheduled pit stop late because one of his lug nuts wasn’t tightened all the way.

I also love the idea of Busch winning again after finally getting his first-ever win on his home track in any series spanning over 22 years. His first home win and the home crowd wasn’t allowed to be there to support him. I think Busch is owed a party with his hometown fans after a win.

A Ford has won six of the last 10 races at LVMS, but I’m going Chevy strong this week.

Pennzoil 400 Contenders

Pennzoil 400
Top-5 Finish Prediction

1) #1 Kurt Busch (35/1)
2) #88 Alex Bowman (30/1)
3) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
4) #24 William Byron (18/1)
5) #19 Martin Truex Jr. (15/2)

Odds Subject to Change - Per the SuperBook

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