Canelo Alvarez looks to make more history when he challenges Callum Smith for the WBA (super) and The Ring super middleweight titles along with the vacant WBC championship at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, live on DAZN.
Here's a complete betting guide for Canelo Alvarez vs. Callum Smith, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction to win.
Canelo vs Kovalev Betting Odds and Info. Despite the move up in weight, bookies like Alvarez in a big way over Kovalev. The lineal middleweight champion is -400 on the three-way moneyline with 888sport and -433 on the two-way line over at Fox Bet. Meanwhile, Kovalev is +300 at 888sport via the three-way line and +333 at Fox Bet on the two-way. CANELO vs KOVALEV BETTING PREVIEW Despite great power, Alvarez has seen four of his last five bouts come via decision The 28-year-old's only blemish on his astounding 51-1-2 overall record came back in September 2013 at the hands of Floyd Mayweather Jr., who won via majority decision. Kovalev betting odds According to SportsbookReview.com, Canelo Alvarez opened as a -360 favorite, which means you'll need to bet $360 to win $100. Meanwhile, Sergey Kovalev is a +300 underdog, meaning if you bet $100, you could win $300. Canelo Alvarez record and bio.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Callum Smith odds
- Canelo Alvarez: -500
- Callum Smith: +350
(All odds via BetMGM)
BetMGM has Alvarez installed as a significant favorite — as of Thursday, he comes in at -500, meaning you'd need to bet $500 to win $100. Meanwhile, Smith is a +350 underdog, meaning if you pluck down $100 you'd win $350.
Alvarez (53-1-2 36 KOs), the WBA and WBC 'Franchise' middleweight champion, steps back into action for the first time since defeating Sergey Kovalev by 11th-round knockout in November 2019 to capture the WBO light heavyweight title.
Smith (27-0 19 KOs) has been looking for the big fight and finally gets what he's been asking for against boxing's biggest star. 'Mundo' fought on the Canelo-Fielding card, defeating Hassan N'Dam by third-round TKO. He won the WBA title by knocking out George Groves in September 2018 at the World Boxing Super Series final. The Englishman last competed in November 2019, beating John Ryder via unanimous decision.
On paper and looking at the odds, it would appear Alvarez wins in a rout. But the odds don't truly affect how close the fight is, and Smith possesses the ability to dethrone Alvarez. Unlike Alvarez's previous venture to 168 pounds, a third-round knockout of Rocky Fielding in December 2018, Smith has legitimate skills that will pose a problem to Canelo.
Two of those include holding a seven-inch height advantage along with a seven and half-inch edge in the reach department. While Alvarez proved those factors weren't an issue with Fielding and Kovalev, Smith is different. He's younger than both and can use those attributes to cause Alvarez a ton of problems. People tend to forget the fight with Kovalev was extremely close, with some having the Russian ahead or had it even at the time of Alvarez's thudding right hand to send him packing.
If Kovalev was able to do that, think of what Smith can do. Smith has an extremely hard jab and a powerful left hook, which helped put Groves away. But some don't remember that and are entirely focused on Smith's mediocre performance against Ryder. Was it a poor showing? Absolutely. Was Smith fighting down to his opposition? A case can be made for that to be the reason.
If that Smith shows up on Saturday, Alvarez will chew him up and spit him out. Alvarez is boxing's pound-for-pound best for a reason. Regardless of the advantages an opponent may have, Alvarez always finds a way to turn the negative into a positive. He can't afford to sit on the outside and eat jabs all night long. Doing so will make it a long evening at the office.
For Smith to spring the upset, he has to stay active continually. He can't let Alvarez set the tone of how things are going to go in the ring. Smith needs to let Alvarez know from the opening bell that he's here to fight and not going to just lay down for the paycheck. The Englishman should take a lot from the Kovalev and implement a part of the same strategy. There are weight classes for a reason, and Smith needs to remind Alvarez of that with every single punch he throws.
Even though Smith holds those attributes over Alvarez, this is Alvarez's fight to lose. He's growing into a legitimate super middleweight. As the Fielding and Kovalev bouts exemplified, Alvarez's power translates into whatever division he's competing at. He's been using the jab as a setup for the patented left hook upstairs, to the body and the straight right hand, which put Kovalev away.
It's going to be a battle of chess and power. We are going to get a war. But as the fight wears on, Alvarez will assert his dominance and pull away in the championship rounds to become a four-division world champion.
Canelo vs. Smith prediction
How Much Is Canelo Vs Kovalev
Muehlhausen pick: Canelo Alvarez
Best odds: Canelo Alvarez on points, +180
More Canelo vs. Smith odds
Total number of rounds: over/under
- Over 10: -125
- Under 10: -110
Will the fight go the distance?
- Yes: +125
- No: -175
Method of victory
- Alvarez by KO/TKO/DQ or submission: -115
- Alvarez by decision: +180
- Tie/technical tie: +2500
- Smith by KO/TKO/DQ or submission: +600
- Smith by decision: +1000
Sergey Kovalev (34-4-1, 29 KOs) vs. Bektemir Melikuziev (6-0, 5 KOs)
When: Saturday, January 30, 2021
Where: Luzhniki, Moscow, Russia
TV: DAZN
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight: 178 Catch-Weight
by Loot Levinson of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: Sergey Kovalev (+250), Bektemir Melikuziev (-300)
Fight Analysis:
Former World Light Heavyweight Champion Sergey Kovalev takes on up-and-coming prospect Bektemir Melikuziev on January 30 in Moscow. This bout will be held at a special catchweight of 178 pounds. For Kovalev, this is a big chance to breathe some life into his career after being knocked out by Canelo last November by beating a rising commodity in Melikuziev. For the youngster, 13 years Kovalev’s junior at 24, this would fast-track his career, which is barely 18 months old. It’s a classic battle of young vs. old, and in Russia, this will be a high-stakes fight. Who can get the upper hand on January 30?
This fight is very unique on some different levels. You have a fighter in Kovalev who has been at the top of his division for a decade, having made a lot of money in some high-profile fights going back a number of years. He has been in there with the best, and a lot of people still think he beat now-retired and undefeated Andre Ward in their first fight. You don’t usually see a fighter with Kovalev’s credentials crossing paths with a six-fight pro like Melikuziev. And making the youngster’s challenge even more-lofty is that he is a super middleweight taking on a light heavyweight with added poundage at the 178-pound catchweight.
It is a calculated move on the part of the Melikuziev brain-trust. The thinking is that Kovalev still has a big name, one fight removed from a big fight with Canelo. His name still has pop. But he’s spoiled goods, on the downside of his career, and not near the force he once was. Kovalev was an assassin in the ring, combining fearsome power and underrated skill to reign terror on the 175-pound division for a long time. But the mileage began accruing, and he became a little more brittle. After being stopped by a smaller fighter in his last fight, Melikuziev is hoping to do it again. But he’s no Canelo.
Even if you sign off on the notion that Kovalev is washed up, it’s still a massive leap up in class. And let’s take a closer look at Kovalev and whether or not he’s really through. After a long championship run that culminated with two fights with Ward, he began to fray a bit, winning a few fights before being knocked out by Eleider Alvarez. But it’s what happened after that, which shows he still has something to be accounted for. He exacted revenge on the capable Alvarez, winning a decision, before waging war with Anthony Yarde and forging a big late-KO win. And sure, an 11th-round KO loss to Alvarez where he took some punishment and some outside-the-ring legal issues may have him an even lesser version of himself than he was a year ago, sticking a fork in Kovalev could be a bit premature.
Again, the case of Melikuziev jumping in the ring with “The Krusher” in his 7th fight seems curious, but some good things are in place. First off, he’s a blue-chip prospect of the highest order, featuring an amateur record that was stellar and included gold medal wins in world championships, as well as an Olympic silver medal in 2016. The Uzbekistani southpaw is now based in the states, and this will actually be his first pro fight in Russia. He has been put on an accelerated track since turning pro, while having not beaten anyone too fantastic yet, the most familiar name on his ledger being upset-specialist Clay Collard.
It’s easy to understand the enthusiasm around Melikuziev. A somewhat squat, thickly-muscled aggressor, he lashes out suddenly with quick shots that do a lot of damage. He goes hard to the body, always a concern with Kovalev, but especially in this more-brittle later stage of his career. The concern with Kovalev isn’t his offense so much. He can still lash out with hard shots, and his right-hand would theoretically be a good matchup-element against his left-handed opponent. But it’s how he takes the punishment, and against Melikuziev, that’s the worst shortcoming to have. He really gets after it and punishes his opponents.
Kovalev is bigger and longer than his opponent. His jab is an underrated weapon that can sometimes control distance. His punching power is still a problem for opponents. Melikuziev, with his long amateur pedigree and having been fighting unexceptional 168-pounders, is likely to experience punching power, unlike anything he has experienced. And sure, he looks the part of a durable fighter who can take damage, having not so much as flinched from anything so far. But you just never know.
I think the size will be reason for Kovalev backers to be more confident perhaps, but it might not be the factor they’re hoping it will be. In fact, an aggressive smaller fighter who is faster with a higher work-rate might not be what the doctor ordered for Kovalev at this stage in his career. Kovalev needs to fight at a certain pace and dictate the terms. With this smaller fighter attacking quickly, Kovalev really needs to make some big early statements and catch Melikuziev coming in, or he could run the risk of getting run over.
Kovalev is a proud warrior fighting in his home country with his back against the wall career-wise. Expect some resistance. If this turned out to be a terrible miscalculation on the part of Melikuziev and his management, it wouldn’t be the first time. Not everyone can make this jump. I just see the conditions being about right. I don’t think Kovalev has the stomach anymore for long protracted wars against this level of opponent. I see Melikuziev bringing the curtain down on Kovalev. I’ll take youth over experience in this battle.
My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Bektemir Melikuziev at -300 betting odds. At this point in his career, Kovalev might be reduced to having a “puncher’s chance.” If that power doesn’t surface in quick and resounding order, this has the looks of an extreme uphill battle for the old ex-champion. Place your bets for free this week by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus offer on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at BetNow Sportsbook!
Boxing Picks
- Juan Francisco Estrada vs. Roman Gonzalez Fight Analysis & Predictions
- Alexander Povetkin vs. Dillian Whyte Analysis & Picks
- Sergey Kovalev vs. Bektemir Melikuziev Odds & Prediction
- Ryan Garcia vs. Luke Campbell Picks – Odds & Fight Analysis
- Anthony Joshua vs. Kubrat Pulev Analysis & Picks
Biggest Sportsbook Bonuses
5x Rollover
Canelo Vs Kovalev Betting Odds
4x Rollover
Kovalev Vs Canelo Alvarez Betting Odds
20x Rollover